Unsold Housing Stock Lower Than Predicted, Says CIF

The body representing Irish builders has blasted the suggestion there is currently 50,000 unsold new homes in the Republic, instead claiming the figure stands at 35,000.

Analysis by the Construction Industry Federation (CIF) dismissed previous figures, which it claims are presented as 'fact'.

Predictions by commentators put the volume of dormant stock much higher than reality, according to the CIF.

CIF analysis also pointed to house price reductions around 30%.

Director General Tom Parlon said: "Our count of unsold new homes puts the figure nationally at less than 11 months supply and in Dublin, at less than 8 months' supply.

"These figures contrast sharply with recent reports on the housing market and give a truer indication of likely trends in the sales over the coming 12 to 24 months.

"With just 20,000 houses likely to be built next year, and the vast bulk of these for local authority social housing purposes and for one-off housing in the countryside, the currently stock of unsold houses in the market will clear quickly," he added.


The CIF's analysis, which was conducted between 1 September and mid October, shows that in last year the average price of a new home has been reduced by 30% in nominal terms and 35% in real terms - when adjusted for inflation.

It also said, that despite the significant improvement in housing affordability, the volume of house sales has slowed significantly

Many prospective house buyers have been unable to obtain sufficient mortgage finance to purchase their homes due to the lack of liquidity in the banking system, according to the report.

It suggested, based on an average annual demand for at least 45,000 new homes per annum, there is now a significant pent up demand for houses.

The various estimates of unsold new homes of the housing market are over stated, it claimed.

The volume of unsold new homes nationally stands at 35,000 or less than 2% of Ireland's total housing stock, according to figures.

This represents less than 1 year's housing supply, which is not out of line with the current European experience, the figure suggested.

In Dublin, there are 10,000 unsold new homes, which is less than 1.5% of the city's total housing stock and less than 8 months' housing supply

Just 20,000 new homes will be built in 2009 and these will be primarily for local authority social housing purposes and one-off housing in the countryside and some scheme housing, according to the analysis.

(PR/JM)